Occupancy Forecast: Where Ontario’s Short-Term Market Is Headed Post-2025

Occupancy Forecast: Where Ontario’s Short-Term Market Is Headed Post-2025
As Ontario enters a new era of short-term rental demand, hosts and investors alike are asking: What comes next? With shifting regulations, tourism rebounds, and digital nomadism on the rise, post-2025 presents both opportunities and challenges.
Based on Casa Co-Host’s internal analytics and market data from key cities like Toronto, Hamilton, Oakville, and Muskoka, here’s what to expect from the province’s evolving Airbnb landscape.
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ToggleUrban Markets Like Toronto Are Rebalancing

After years of growth followed by pandemic-era stagnation, Toronto’s short-term rental market is stabilizing. While regulations have capped the number of legally listed units, demand remains high in neighborhoods near hospitals, universities, and entertainment zones.
Areas like downtown, King West, and near the University of Toronto will remain resilient. Listings that offer high design quality, professional photography, and 24/7 guest communication (services offered by Casa Co-Host) will stand out as oversupply meets stricter enforcement.
Projected 2025+ Average Occupancy Rate for Downtown Toronto: ~74% (weekend surge-driven)
Nature-Driven Destinations Like Muskoka Are Surging

Demand for cottages and remote escapes continues to grow, with Muskoka, Haliburton, and Kawartha Lakes seeing increased year-round interest. Remote workers, family vacationers, and urbanites seeking long weekend getaways are reshaping seasonal patterns.
The properties that do best include hot tubs, lake access, strong Wi-Fi, and amenities like firepits or paddleboards. Casa Co-Host data shows a 15% increase in shoulder season bookings since 2023.
Forecasted Growth in Year-Round Occupancy: +18% by Q2 2026
Secondary Cities Like Hamilton, Brampton & Barrie Are Emerging

Affordability and accessibility are key drivers. Cities like Hamilton and Brampton are attracting Airbnb guests looking for suburban charm without the Toronto price tag. With proper licensing and curated guest experiences, listings in these areas can match or even exceed big-city occupancy levels.
In Hamilton, our hosts are seeing consistent bookings around event weekends, art districts, and hiking trail access. Brampton properties near Pearson Airport or Bramalea City Centre also show steady mid-week bookings.
Opportunity Insight: These cities offer lower property investment cost with rising demand from both tourists and temporary relocation stays.
What This Means for Hosts

Ontario’s post-2025 short-term rental market will favour:
- Fully compliant and licensed listings (see our Airbnb Licensing Guide)
- Properties with premium guest experiences
- Hosts who invest in professional support, such as cleaning, inspections, pricing tools, and guest communication
As casual hosts fade out due to tighter regulations and lower margins, full-service operations like Casa Co-Host provide the consistency that guests and platforms now expect.
Final Word: 2025 Will Reward Prepared Hosts
Markets evolve, but guest expectations only increase. Those who plan ahead — optimizing their listings, aligning with regulations, and leaning into hospitality-first thinking — will thrive.
Whether you’re launching a Muskoka cottage or navigating Toronto’s licensing maze, Casa Co-Host helps you stay ahead.
📞 Speak to our local team at 289-778-4678 for a city-by-city outlook.
Explore additional owner tools:
- Airbnb Pricing Optimization
- Property Inspections & Maintenance
- How to Prepare for Airbnb Guests